In the race toward an electric future, Africa finds itself in the paradoxical position of standing atop untapped oil and gas wealth while importing second-hand hybrids. The world is shifting. Fast. From Berlin to Beijing, the engines of innovation are humming not with oil but with lithium.
Tesla, BYD, Rivian, and others are racing toward an electric tomorrow, while much of Africa is still wrestling with fuel subsidies, erratic power supply, and the heavy inheritance of internal combustion engines.
Amid this global pivot, Africa stands at a critical fork in the road. The continent's leaders must ask a daring question: Where should Africa place its energy bets?
The Temptation of the Refinery
Take the case of Nigeria's Dangote Refinery, a $20 billion oil-processing monolith and the largest of its kind in Africa, with the capacity to refine 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day. It’s seen as a bold step toward energy independence, aimed at slashing Nigeria’s $11 billion annual fuel import bill.
But herein lies the paradox: as the world accelerates toward electric vehicles (EVs), is Africa at risk of pouring billions into what may become stranded infrastructure?
By 2035, the European Union will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. Countries like Norway have already passed the 80% mark in new EV sales. If demand for refined fuels dips dramatically, African refineries may end up with local oversupply and no global buyers.
EV Dreams, Diesel Reality
Globally, the electric vehicle market grew by 35% in 2023, reaching over 14 million units sold. China leads the charge, producing more than 60% of global EVs, largely powered by companies like BYD.
Yet in Africa, less than 0.05% of vehicles on the road are electric, according to the Africa E-Mobility Alliance. Most African cities lack the foundational infrastructure, charging stations, reliable electricity, or maintenance ecosystems to support widespread EV adoption.
Meanwhile, over 40% of cars imported into Africa are used vehicles, many of which are over 15 years old and often banned in their countries of origin. Africa is, in effect, becoming a dumping ground for outdated transport tech.
The Gas Beneath Our Feet
Africa holds an estimated 17 trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves, with Mozambique (100 trillion cubic feet), Nigeria (over 200 trillion cubic feet), and Algeria (159 trillion cubic feet) leading the pack.
Natural gas is 30–50% cleaner than coal or oil when used for power generation. In theory, it’s the perfect “transition fuel”—cheap, relatively clean, and abundant.
Yet, as of 2024, less than 10% of Africa’s gas reserves have been developed. Much of what is extracted is shipped out as LNG to Europe and Asia. The continent exports its cleaner energy while over 600 million Africans still live without electricity.
Exporting the Past, Importing the Future
Africa’s automotive paradox is painful:
• 9 out of 10 vehicles in sub-Saharan Africa are imported.
• Of these, 80% are used vehicles, often inefficient and high-emission.
• A few African countries have shown a strong desire to formulate EV policies, such as Rwanda, Botswana, Kenya, South Africa, and Egypt.
Meanwhile, African countries import hybrid and electric cars from the same nations transitioning to 100% EVs by 2035. We are absorbing the remnants of yesterday’s technology while exporting the raw materials (like cobalt and lithium) needed for tomorrow’s.
So, where should Africa go?
There is no silver bullet. But there is a clear path of bold, balanced investment:
1. Transitional Realism
Invest in modern, flexible refineries and gas infrastructure, but pair them with climate contingencies and exit plans. Ensure they serve Africa’s domestic market first.
2. Green Leapfrogging
Don’t wait to catch up leap ahead. Kenya now gets over 90% of its electricity from renewables, setting a continental benchmark. Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam aims to supply 6,000 MW of clean energy. Other nations must emulate this ambition.
3. Local EV Innovation
Support African EV startups like Roam (Kenya) and Ampersand (Rwanda) building electric motorcycles tailored to local markets. Push for localized battery assembly and charging innovation. Africa might not need Teslas; it needs tuk-tuks that charge on solar.
4. Policy First
Public-private partnerships thrive where there's vision. Governments must set coherent EV strategies, enforce vehicle age limits, incentivize clean energy, and reform fuel subsidies.
Final Thought: The Price of Indecision
Africa is not powerless, but we are at risk of investing billions into assets that the world is rapidly moving away from. The global energy transition is not just a climate imperative; it’s an economic one. Africa must choose whether to remain a consumer of the past or a co-creator of the future.
The refinery might still be relevant. The gas fields are still promising. But in a world where electricity is the new oil, our greatest power will lie not underground but in how boldly we imagine what comes next.
